Conservation of woody species in China under future climate and land-cover changes

Climate and land-cover changes are major threats to biodiversity, and their impacts are expected to intensify in the future. Protected areas (PAs) are crucial for biodiversity conservation. However, their effectiveness under future climate and land-cover changes remains to be evaluated. Moreover, the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on multi-dimensions of biodiversity are rarely considered when expanding PAs. Using distributions of 8732 woody species in China and species distribution models, we identified species that will be threatened by future climate and land-cover changes (i.e. species with significant projected loss of suitable habitats by the 2070s) under different dispersal scenarios. We then estimated the geographical patterns in species richness (SR) and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of these threatened species, evaluated the effectiveness (i.e. the changes in SR and PD) of Chinese PAs, and identified conservation priorities for future PA expansion. Approximately...