Climate model projections of extreme physical conditions in Alaskan waters, 2006-2080

The project provides information on the probable frequency and magnitude of extreme physical oceanographic events in Alaskan waters during the next 50 years. The analysis will consider separately three different habitats: the Gulf of Alaska, southeast Bering Sea shelf and Aleutian Islands. The individual parameters of interest for each region will be those that have been identified, or have been postulated, to be crucial to marine ecosystem productivity and composition. The projections will be based on the simulations carried out with global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A multi-model ensemble approach will be used towards the development of robust estimates of probability density functions (pdfs) on decadal time scales. The project builds on the investigators’ previous expertise in ecosystem/climate studies and the evaluation of climate models for the North Pacific and high-latitude regions.