Data from: Spatio-temporal responses of predators to hyperabundant geese affect risk of predation for sympatric-nesting species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid changes, with anthropogenic shifts in
climate having important and well-documented impacts on habitat.
Populations of predators and their prey are affected by changing climate
and other anthropogenic factors, and these changing trophic interactions
could have profound effects on breeding populations of Arctic birds.
Variable abundance of lemmings (a primary prey of generalist Arctic
predators) and increasing abundance of light geese (Lesser Snow and Ross’
Geese; a secondary prey) could have negative consequences for numerous
sympatric shorebirds (an incidental prey). Using 16 years of predator-prey
observations and 13-years of shorebird nest survival data at a site near a
goose colony we identify relationships among geese, lemmings, and their
shared predators and then relate predator indices to shorebird risk of
nest predation. During two years, we also placed time-lapse cameras and
artificial shorebird nests at increasing distances from a goose colony to
document spatial trends in predators and their effect on risk of
predation. In the long-term data, yearly indices of light geese positively
influenced indices of gulls and jaegers, and shorebird nest predation rate
was negatively correlated with jaeger and fox indices. All three predator
indices were highest near the goose colony and artificial nest predation
probability was negatively correlated with distance from goose colony, but
these effects were less apparent during the second year. Combined, these
results highlight the variation in predator-mediated interactions between
geese and shorebirds and outline one mechanism by which hyperabundant
geese may be contributing to local or regional declines in Arctic-nesting
shorebird populations.