Coastal storms initiative: summary of 1 June-31 August 2003 evaluation

As part of the Coastal Storms Initiative (CSI) project, an intensive statistical evaluation of the newly implemented Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model that was installed at the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Jacksonville, Florida was conducted from 1 June-31 August 2003. The evaluation was subdivided into two parts: an objective real-time evaluation and a subjective meteorological evaluation. The results presented in this report summarize only the objective real-time evaluation. Forecasts were verified using the Forecast Systems Laboratory’s Real-Time Verification System (RTVS; Mahoney et al. 2002). The variables chosen for evaluation were accumulated precipitation, surface winds, surface temperature, and surface relative humidity. Statistical results are available through the RTVS web site (www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/; link Coastal Storms Initiative). Only a selection of the results is summarized in this report. Two different configurations of the WRF (WRF-Hot and WRF-Cold) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta models were evaluated. The forecasts from the 0600 UTC run, 3-hourly forecasts from 3 to 24 hours, were compared.