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Positive-Result Challenge of the Honesty Harness (Levels 1-2): pre-registration, sealed assignment, ledger and code

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Zenodo2026-09-29 更新2026-10-01 收录
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This deposit contains the complete record of the pre-registered, mechanically blinded positive-result challenge required by §6(iii) of the Honesty Harness manuscript preregistration: the frozen challenge preregistration with its §10 verdict appended below the freeze marker (`PREREGISTRO_CHALLENGE.md`, frozen-part sha256 `79644d780df7…`, marker-included convention, with sha256 sidecar and OpenTimestamps receipt); the sealed blind assignment of 600 synthetic worlds to arms (`assignment.json`, sha256 `d693da6582ee…`, with sidecar and OpenTimestamps receipt — the `os.urandom` master seed inside it was not seen by the director until unmasking); the closed verdict ledger (`verdict_ledger.json`, sha256 `dcaf788469df…`, one verdict per world under the primary gates, with the secondary gate and the 200-world sensitivity floor recorded per world); both floors, sealed before any battery verdict (`floor.json`, `floor_200.json`); the calibration file with the full δ→edge response curve and per-λ realized edges (`calibration_delta.json`); the unabridged run log of the 600-world blind battery (`run.log`, 591.7 s, no manual intervention); the unmasked aggregates (`AGGREGADOS.json/.md`); and, under `code/`, the exact challenge code at commit `d7547ab409ad` — world generator for the three arms, sealed-assignment builder, blind runner with its mechanical guard, ledger, unmasking gate and test suite (7/7). Headline result, under the frozen gates and falsifiers: the double-gate verdict procedure detected an in-family planted signal with expected net edge of twice trading costs in 19/20 blind worlds (Wilson 95% [76%, 99%]), produced 24/500 = 4.80% false positives on pure-noise worlds against a nominal α = 5% (point estimate below α; the Wilson interval [3.25%, 7.04%] contains 5%, so the statement is not conclusive at 95%), and detected an out-of-family signal in 0/20 worlds. Falsifiers F1, F2 and F3 did not fire; the realized false-positive rate exceeded its pre-registered expectation band (0.5–3%), with the diagnosis — sampling noise of a tail quantile estimated from a 20-world floor — recorded in §10 together with the sensitivity variant (2.00% under the 200-world floor). The system under test is honesty-harness-toolkit v0.1.0 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22846067); this record is a supplement to the Honesty Harness protocol (doi:10.5281/zenodo.21838807) and to the manuscript "The Honesty Harness: expert-directed, AI-executed empirical research with frozen criteria and asymmetric verdicts". License: CC BY 4.0. Author: Ricardo Castellanos Macias (ORCID 0009-0009-8031-589X). Version 1.1 (2026-09-29) — traceability additions; the v1.0 record is unchanged. This version adds verification material on top of the complete v1.0 record (every v1.0 file is included unmodified): (1) literal copies of the exact bytes sealed by each OpenTimestamps receipt, stored as .frozen-original. — the two preregistrations later grew below their freeze markers (verdict §10; Amendment A1 in the manuscript preregistration), so the sealed originals are provided next to the receipts, and the sha256 of each copy equals the hash inside its receipt; (2) upgraded OpenTimestamps receipts (*.upgraded.ots) carrying Bitcoin block-header attestations — earliest blocks: manuscript preregistration 968,320; challenge preregistration and sealed assignment 968,361 — while the original .ots receipts remain unchanged; (3) VERIFY.md, the third-party verification guide: the two-level scheme (frozen-part sidecar recomputable on the current file; OTS receipt over the complete original), byte-exact recompute commands, and an erratum documenting that the challenge sidecar value 79644d78… covers the first 1,762 bytes of the sealed file (the freeze script cut at the first prose occurrence of the marker literal) — the binding of the entire frozen document is carried by the full-file hash fedf9b1f… and the Bitcoin-attested receipt, which are unaffected; (4) OTS_REGISTRO.md, the block-height table for every receipt of the program; and (5) the manuscript preregistration's sealed original and receipts, so both preregistrations governing this record verify from this deposit alone.

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Zenodo
创建时间:
2026-09-29
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