Total symptomatic DENV infections reported by the Ministry of Health and estimated episodes using expansion factors from the Morelos cohort study.

Notes: Estimated cases from the Mexican Ministry of Health (MoH) include all lab-confirmed cases plus the share of positive cases from the laboratory diagnosed samples multiplied by the probable cases reported (probable dengue are suspected episodes of dengue with specific clinical symptoms). 95%CL denotes a 95% certainty level for each estimate, obtained through Monte Carlo simulations using the probability distributions shown in Table 5. These numbers in parentheses indicate the region of uncertainty around base-case estimates. DENV denotes dengue virus, DF denotes dengue fever, DHF denotes dengue hemorrhagic fever, EF denotes expansion factor, CL denotes certainty level.a In year 2011, 13.7% of the DF episodes and 3.1% of the DHF episodes reported by the MoH were not classified as ambulatory or hospitalized cases in the data. We assigned these patients to hospitalized or ambulatory treatments based on the proportion of patients by treatment in 2010.Total symptomatic DENV infections reported by the Ministry of Health and estimated episodes using expansion factors from the Morelos cohort study.