Binomial models explaining the occurrence of Jacaranda flowering in Melbourne, Perth, Sydney, Parramatta, and Penrith between 2009–2019.

The number of asterisks indicate model fit (*Low fit, **Moderate fit, ***Good fit). Bold letters outline the best models with the best fit, the least number of covariates, and the lowest Akaike International Criterion (AIC), Global and Partial deviance (G.Dev and P.Dev). The explanatory variables include Mean Minimum Temperature (MMinTemp), Mean Maximum Temperature (MMaxTemp), Mean Temperature (MTemp), Highest Temperature (HTemp), Rainfall (Rain) and Sun Exposure (SunExp) recorded per month at each weather station. Station is a factor (f) and some variables are smoothed (cs). The number after the variable indicates the lag in months when an association to Jacaranda flowering was detected.