Vertical intra-institutional effects of ministerial turnover in the Council of the European Union

How do high levels of ministerial turnover affect the strength of ministers and bureaucrats in the Council of the European Union? We test two rival hypotheses – one suggesting that high turnover rates will empower bureaucrats, the other suggesting that they will increase uncertainty and increase ministerial involvement. We empirically document high turnover among ministers in the Council. Next, we develop a conceptual framework that identifies four ways that turnover might affect institutional balances. Then we outline rival hypotheses about turnover’s vertical intra-institutional effects and present statistical models that gauge turnover’s effects on the power of ministers and bureaucrats. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that higher turnover is associated with lower levels of ministerial control. The article generates new insights into institutional dynamics and informs debates about the nature of European Union accountability.