Data from: Variable effects of a changing climate on lay dates and productivity across the range of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker

Many temperate bird species are breeding earlier in response to warming
temperatures. We examined the effects of climate on breeding phenology and
productivity in 19 populations across the range of the Red-cockaded
Woodpecker (Picoides borealis), an endangered species endemic to pine
(Pinus spp.) forests in the southeastern United States. Red-cockaded
Woodpeckers nested earlier in warmer springs and delayed nesting in wetter
springs. Earlier nesting and larger group sizes resulted in higher
productivity. Spring temperatures have warmed over time across the range,
but this has not led to range-wide advances in nesting date over time.
Coastal and northern populations have exhibited a trend of earlier nesting
over time, but the response of inland populations has been variable,
including some populations in which nesting has become later over time.
Geographic patterns included high and increasing productivity at higher
latitudes, and declining productivity in the southwestern portion of the
range, suggesting a possible shift in acceptable climate conditions for
the species. Earlier nesting over time was associated with increasing
productivity at higher latitudes, while elsewhere earlier nesting over
time was associated with declining or stable productivity, suggesting that
populations differ in their ability to adjust to a changing climate. The
Red-cockaded Woodpecker is a habitat specialist heavily reliant on habitat
management and has little capacity to shift its range, so its long-term
viability will depend on its ability to adjust in place to changing local
conditions.