Exploring Changes in Poverty in South Carolina During the Great Recession Using a Spatial Durbin Model

In this paper, we use a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to analyze poverty in South Carolina - a predom- inantly rural state with large pockets of persistent poverty counties. This allows for identifying specic factors in surrounding areas that in uence local poverty rates, something missing from the existing liter- ature. Earlier research relied on the general spatial model that we now know is not appropriate in applied research. We nd poverty rates increased with more retirees and kids, more single moms, and higher average TANF payments in a county. There were no signicant eects from income and job growth. Population density was the only variable with a negative eect during the study period 2003 to 2014.