Index for Risk Management (INFORM Risk)

The INFORM Risk model is based on risk concepts published in scientific literature and envisages three dimensions of risk: hazards & exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity dimensions. They are conceptualized in a counterbalancing relationship: the risk of what (natural and human hazard), and the risk to what (population).

The INFORM Risk model balances two major forces: the hazard & exposure dimension on one side, and the vulnerability and the lack of coping capacity dimensions on the other side. Hazard dependent factors are treated in the hazard & exposure dimension, while hazard independent factors are divided into two dimensions: the vulnerability dimension that considers the strength of the individuals and households relative to a crisis situation, and the lack of coping capacity dimension that considers factors of institutional strength.

The INFORM Risk model adopts the three aspects of vulnerability reflected in the UNISDR definition. The aspects of physical exposure and physical vulnerability are integrated in the hazard & exposure dimension, the aspect of fragility of the socio-economic system becomes INFORM Risk's vulnerability dimension while lack of resilience to cope and recover is treated under the lack of coping capacity dimension. The split of vulnerability in three components is particularly useful for tracking the results of disaster reduction strategies over time. Disaster risk reduction activities are often localized and address particular community-level vulnerabilities and capacities.

The UNISDR and most of the literature express risk by:

Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability

In order to accommodate the INFORM Risk methodology, where the vulnerability variable is split among three dimensions, the equation is updated to:

Risk = Hazard&Exposure ^ 1/3 x Vulnerability ^ 1/3 x Lack of coping capacity ^ 1/3

It is a multiplicative equation. The risk equals zero if one of the three dimensions above is zero. Theoretically, in case of tropical cyclones there is no risk if there is no likelihood of a tropical cyclone to occur or/and the hazard zone is not populated or/and if the population is not vulnerable (e.g., all people have high level of education and live in high level of health and livelihood condition as well as they can afford houses built to a high level of wind security) or/and if the resilience of the country to cope and recover is ideal.