DVRPC 2050 Population & Employment Forecasts, & Zonal Data (Municipalities) version 2.1

As a part of DVRPC's long-range planning activities, the Commission is required to maintain forecasts with at least a 20-year horizon. DVRPC has updated forecasts through the horizon year of the 2050 Long-Range Plan. The 2050 Version 2.1 Population and Employment Forecasts (2050 Version 2.0, v2.1) were adopted by the DVRPC Board on October 24, 2024, They update the 2050 v1.0 forecasts with a new county-level age-cohort model and new base data from the 2020 Decennial Census, 2020 Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and 2021 National Establishments Time Series (NETS). The age-cohort model calculates the future population for five-year age-sex cohorts using the 2020 Census base population and anticipated birth, death, and migration rates. These anticipated rates were developed using historic birth and death records from New Jersey and Pennsylvania state health department data, as well as historic net migration data, calculated from decennial census data. Employment forecasts were developed by multiplying population forecasts by a ratio of working age population to jobs, calculated from 2022 ACS and BEA data. The municipal and TAZ forecasts use the growth factors from the v1.0 forecasts, scaled to the new county and regional population totals from the age-cohort model. While the forecast is not adopted at the transportation analysis zone (TAZ) level, it is allocated to these zones for use in DVRPC's travel demand model, and conforms to municipal/district level adopted totals. This data provides TAZ-level population and employment. Other travel model attributes are available upon request. DVRPC has prepared regional- and county-level population and employment forecasts in five-year increments for years 2020-2050. 2019 land use model results are also available. For further information on the forecasting process and methodologies, see 2050 v2.1 Population and Employment Forecasts Analytical Data Report at (https://www.dvrpc.org/products/26105).

作为德拉瓦河谷区域规划委员会（Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, DVRPC）长期规划工作的组成部分，该委员会需编制并维护至少20年展望期的预测数据。DVRPC已将预测数据更新至2050年长期规划的展望年限。2050年2.1版人口与就业预测报告（2050 Version 2.0, v2.1）已于2024年10月24日经DVRPC董事会审议通过。该报告通过全新的县级年龄队列模型，以及来自2020年十年一次人口普查、2020年美国经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA）、2021年全国企业时间序列（National Establishments Time Series, NETS）的基础数据，对2050 v1.0版预测数据进行了更新。年龄队列模型以2020年人口普查的基准人口为基础，结合预期出生率、死亡率与迁移率，计算出按五年年龄-性别分组的未来人口规模。上述预期速率的测算依据新泽西州与宾夕法尼亚州卫生部门的历史出生、死亡记录，以及基于十年一次人口普查数据计算得到的历史净迁移数据。就业预测则通过将人口预测数据乘以劳动年龄人口与就业岗位的比值得到，该比值基于2022年美国社区调查（American Community Survey, ACS）与BEA的数据测算得出。市级与交通分析区（Transportation Analysis Zone, TAZ）级预测沿用了v1.0版预测的增长因子，并根据年龄队列模型得到的县级与区域人口总量进行了缩放调整。尽管该预测未在TAZ层面获得正式审议通过，但已被分配至各TAZ以用于DVRPC的出行需求模型，且符合市级/区级已通过的总量标准。本数据集提供TAZ级别的人口与就业数据。其他出行模型属性可按需获取。DVRPC还编制了2020至2050年每五年为一个周期的区域及县级人口与就业预测数据。2019年土地利用模型的运行结果同样可供获取。如需了解预测流程与方法学的更多细节，请查阅《2050 v2.1版人口与就业预测分析数据报告》，链接为：https://www.dvrpc.org/products/26105。