Change in fasting plasma glucose and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: results from a prospective cohort study

Objective: To investigate the association between changes of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) values and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a cohort of the Iranian population. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: This study was conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) to investigate the association between change of FPG between baseline examination (1999-2001) and the second visit (2002-2005), with incident T2D. Participants: A total of 3981 non-diabetic participants aged 20 years. Outcome measure: Type 2 diabetes was defined if the participant was using anti diabetic drugs, or if FPG was ≥ 7mmol L-1 or if the 2-h post challenge plasma glucose (2-hPCG) was ≥ 11.1 mmol L-1. Results: During a median follow-up of 6.17 years, after second examination, 288 new cases of T2D were identified. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis using age as timescale, we presented a simple model, including the FPG change (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.07-1.33) and bas...