Data from: Demographic processes and fire regimes interact to influence plant population persistence under changing climates

Individual and interactive effects of changing climate and shifting fire
regimes are influencing many plant species across the globe. Climate
change will likely have significant impacts on plant population viability
over time by altering environmental conditions and wildfire regimes as
well as influencing species demographic traits. However, the outcomes of
these complex interactions for different plant functional types under
future climate conditions have been rarely examined. We used a
proof-of-concept case-study approach to model multiple plant species
across two functional plant types, obligate seeder, and facultative
resprouter, to examine the interactive effects of demographic shifts and
fire regime change on population persistence across two landscapes of over
7,000 km2 in temperate southeastern Australia. Our approach involves a
novel combination of a fire regime simulation tool with a spatially
explicit population viability analysis model. We simulated fire regimes
under six different future climates representing different temperature and
precipitation shifts and combined them with 16 hypothetical plant
demographic change scenarios, characterised by changes to individual or
multiple plant demographic processes. Plant populations were more likely
to decline or become extinct due to changes in demographic processes than
in the fire regime alone. Although both functional types were vulnerable
to climate-induced changes in demography, obligate seeder persistence was
also negatively influenced by future fire regimes characterised by shorter
fire intervals. Integrating fire regime simulations with spatially
explicit population viability analyses increased our capacity to identify
those plant functional types most at risk of extinction, and why, as fire
regimes change with climate change. This flexible framework is a first
step in exploring the complex interactions that will determine plant
viability under changing climates and will improve research and fire
management prioritisation for species in the future.