Data from: Maps and additional figures for climate change refugia hotspots for priority species: A case study in East Africa

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to
guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas
relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly
considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species
facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain
underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced the first
comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania with
Tanzanian partners through extensive consultation, in-person
conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our
analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts.
We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species
using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected
future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011-2040 and
2071-2100, using GFDL Earth System and the U.K. Earth System models. More
than half under SSP126 and 79% of the focal species under SSP585 lost
their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern
Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key
climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and
Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This
assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania’s conservation
prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and
montane ecosystems.