China’s Meat Consumption: Growth Potential

China is a major meat producer, consumer, and importer, but consumption changes are difficult to assess due to inconsistencies in Chinese data. China’s population growth is slowing, meat prices are rising, and income is growing at a slower pace than during earlier decades. Disease and other supply-side factors constrain domestic meat supply and imports are a growing share of the supply of each type of meat. Nevertheless, statistical models based on consumer income growth and meat prices suggest China has potential for continued growth in meat consumption. Consumption of poultry, beef, and mutton is growing faster than pork consumption but pork still comprises more than half of consumer meat expenditure in China. Consumption is growing despite rising meat prices in China, and statistical models confirm that consumption is relatively insensitive to price changes. Beef and mutton consumption have risen despite sustained price increases for these meats. Poultry appears to be a substitute for pork.