Data from: Multi-population seedling and soil transplants show possible responses of a common tropical montane tree species (Weinmannia bangii) to climate change

A possible response of many plant species to global warming is migration
to higher elevations. However, these migrations may not be required if
species can tolerate higher temperatures, or may be prevented if there are
other factors such as changes in soil conditions that make upslope areas
unsuitable. We used a set of 3-year field transplant experiments in the
remote Peruvian Andes to simulate two possible responses of an abundant
tropical montane cloudforest tree species (Weinmania bangii) to global
warming: (1) “upward migration”, in which case seedlings of W. bangii’s
were grown at their current elevation/temperature but in soils
transplanted from higher elevations; and (2) “migration failure”, in which
case seedlings were transplanted downslope along with their home soils
into areas that are 1°C or 2°C warmer. We conducted separate experiments
with populations from the upper/leading edge, middle and lower/trailing
edges of W. bangii’s elevational/thermal range to assess the influence of
local adaptation on responses to changes in temperature or soil. We found
that seedling survival and growth were not affected by changes in soil
conditions, regardless of the origin population. However, seedling
survival decreased with temperature. A simulated warming of 1°C caused a
significant reduction in the survival of seedlings transplanted from the
mid-range population, and 2°C warming caused a severe decrease in the
survival of seedlings transplanted from both the mid-range and bottom-edge
populations. Synthesis. Our findings reveal that rising temperatures are a
serious threat to plants, especially in populations growing in the hotter
portion of their species’ range. At least in the case of W. bangii, novel
soil conditions will not limit the establishment or growth of seedlings at
higher elevations. As such, decreases in the survivorship at lower
elevations may be offset through upward migrations as temperatures
continue to increase.