Supplement 1. Raw data used to estimate main vital rates and MATLAB code used in simulations.

File List SURV_RAW_ALL.xls (MD5: ba88d2bd4bc4061a82f209fefc6bc662)<br> SURV_RAW_ANR.txt (MD5: 65cba1d8f36a4140c200d55d948d2c96)<br> SURV_RAW_ARA.txt (MD5: c08edeee8a96f5120a30b84f16eed2da)<br> SURV_RAW_ARR.txt (MD5: 860125d1ac179755d9efd1c95105cab9)<br> SURV_RAW_BUR.txt (MD5: fc693cdfb1cf21808ed96d42a3c62132)<br> SURV_RAW_CAD.txt (MD5: ab04a6c58a0283523e5f8cba4a859afb)<br> SURV_RAW_CAS.txt (MD5: ab04a6c58a0283523e5f8cba4a859afb)<br> SURV_RAW_CAT.txt (MD5: d9b06bff86975789c19f1385f3e65f76)<br> SURV_RAW_FRA.txt (MD5: 9a6f0159f5a7616384497acfb9cfea87)<br> SURV_RAW_GRA.txt (MD5: 973861ec1d91386a246e1851a14f31f0)<br> SURV_RAW_GUA.txt (MD5: 8de4122f8d848f2f980062ce961051fd)<br> SURV_RAW_MUR.txt (MD5: f270136981a15c18a0d819719b41cab2)<br> SURV_RAW_SWP.txt (MD5: 7547cea36d4427de31c7276b17faea52)<br> FEC_RAW_ANR.txt (MD5: c8e934413a313815bd241b86d9b4a4e1)<br> FEC_RAW_ARA.txt (MD5: af7651648e5aa94b3accc6cf9c1c9d68)<br> FEC_RAW_ARR.txt (MD5: 8fbe0c730e392d9c82de58a93d9051e7)<br> FEC_RAW_BUR.txt (MD5: 118b84d7ff7adbceaca8d1e3dfc06584)<br> FEC_RAW_CAD.txt (MD5: 58ba388d2cd0c8f4451d41d1a1beb6fe)<br> FEC_RAW_CAS.txt (MD5: 1f1148d285cb066fd6a392e94fd58ac6)<br> FEC_RAW_CAT.txt (MD5: 8d5adb1ce37b56c206c5be684536829f)<br> FEC_RAW_FRA.txt (MD5: 2c168ad045f334bee018d89bf743f001)<br> FEC_RAW_GRA.txt (MD5: 113152e113e48c5656823737e6705926)<br> FEC_RAW_GUA.txt (MD5: 7767444191611fd846c6166a93d2c076)<br> FEC_RAW_MUR.txt (MD5: 6b67cdcf49f04abafcced6ca7fc957af)<br> FEC_RAW_SWP.txt (MD5: baaaec0df188c110984817ee042985eb)<br> 12_MONITORED_POP.txt (MD5: 8e5be71d57d7d7fd71a3ff667f622e71)<br> PVA_18_POP.txt (MD5: 740a9476c44313bacb729fd1d0531a8d)<br> LAMBDAS_18_POP.txt (MD5: f017464c32f775f57da59b2c0dce55f5)<br> PVA_10_POP.txt (MD5: 73f636e7dbfa5f9bf778cb9a16ce3449)<br> LAMBDAS_10_POP.txt (MD5: b7da917b146a235c1c0cc8b2bb690f62)<br> CLOSED_POP_NO_DENSDEP.m (MD5: b6f532a2cbca0eb7d830983b57d230fc)<br> CLOSED_POP_DENSDEP.m (MD5: 72b6e4c8b1eafd98475d25305d466f7f)<br> MULTISITE_CONS_18pop.m (MD5: c857115a1e6daef1fc2d0853b360ecdb)<br> MULTISITE_UNCO_18pop.m (MD5: c91549d749489437ce133ba6ad992f12)<br> MULTISITE_CONS_10pop.m (MD5: 21bf3c3665ffc17507b6272137161774)<br> MULTISITE_UNCO_10pop.m (MD5: afc6bde6bf16b2c9ea61c674596d4bb3)<br> DATA_FOR_PARAM_UNC_10p.m (MD5: e1043b546cbaffcff083dfa860948c70)<br> MULTISITE_PARAM_UNC_10pop.m (MD5: fd960625bbc893dbd7c4f4e6924ab05f)<br> LIKELIHOOD_EST.m (MD5: a8263044da2398c41469128c17229d1c)<br> Description SURV_RAW_ALL.xls: (Please be aware that ESA cannot guarantee the portability of Excel files). This file contains the numbers of monitored individuals and those that survived each year, as well as the procedure used to estimate the corrected survival estimate (following Hernández-Matías et al. 2011) and its sample variance; the names of the variables (and their definitions) are as follows: <br> 1. YEAR: year.<br> 2. surv1_n: number of monitored individuals from t-1 to t.<br> 3. surv1_sum: number of monitored individuals known to be alive in t; this includes replacements based on all available information: abandoned territories and replacement of territorial birds based on either the plumage age of territorial birds or other sources of information such as marked birds.<br> 4. unc_surv_known: uncorrected survival using all available information).<br> 5. var(y unc_surv_known): variance estimate of yearly unc_surv_known.<br> 6. sample var(unc_surv_known): the summatory of all rows gives the estimate of sample variance for the unc_surv_known in the study period, i.e. the geometric mean of yearly unc_surv_known.<br> 7. surv2_n: number of monitored individuals from t-1 to t.<br> 8. surv2_sum: number of monitored individuals known to be alive in t, taking into account only detectable replacements based on territory abandonment or the plumage age of territorial birds.<br> 9. n_aband: number of individuals that disappeared from their territories and were not replaced by other territorial birds.<br> 10. raw_unc_surv_aband: uncorrected survival using the plumage-age of individuals and taking into account individuals that disappeared from their territories and were not replaced by other territorial birds.<br> 11. S TOR: uncorrected survival using the plumage-age of individuals but not taking into account individuals that disappeared from their territory and were not replaced by other territorial birds.<br> 12. var(y S TOR): variance estimate of yearly S TOR.<br> 13. var(S TOR): the summatory of all rows gives the estimate of variance for the S TOR in the study period, i.e. the geometric mean of yearly S TOR.<br> 14. DWA: proportion of monitored birds that abandoned a territory.<br> 15. var(DWA): variance of the proportion of monitored birds that abandoned a territory.<br> 16. S TOR-C: survival corrected by non-observable replacements following the method proposed by Hernández-Matías et al. 2011.<br> 17. var(y S TOR-C): variance estimate of yearly S TOR-C.<br> 18. sample var(S TOR-C): the summatory of all rows gives the estimate of sample variance for the S TOR-C in the study period, i.e. the geometric mean of yearly S TOR-C.<br> 19. NRSA: proportion of raw_unc_surv_sin_aband that actually corresponds to mortality.<br> 20. var(NRSA): variance of NRSA), NOR (proportion of non-observable replacements.<br> 21. var(NOR): variance of NOR.<br> <br> SURV_RAW_ANR.txt, SURV_RAW_ARA.txt, SURV_RAW_ARR.txt,SURV_RAW_BUR.txt, SURV_RAW_CAD.txt, SURV_RAW_CAS.txt, SURV_RAW_CAT.txt, SURV_RAW_FRA.txt, SURV_RAW_GRA.txt, SURV_RAW_GUA.txt, SURV_RAW_MUR.txt, SURV_RAW_SWP.txt: <br> These files contain the same information than SURV_RAW_ALL.xls but in plain text format. <br> <br> FEC_RAW_ANR.txt, FEC_RAW_ARA.txt, FEC_RAW_ARR.txt, FEC_RAW_BUR.txt, FEC_RAW_CAD.txt, FEC_RAW_CAS.txt, FEC_RAW_CAT.txt, FEC_RAW_FRA.txt, FEC_RAW_GRA.txt, FEC_RAW_GUA.txt, FEC_RAW_MUR.txt, FEC_RAW_SWP.txt: <br> These files contain yearly estimates of fertility for each population the names of the variables (and their definitions) are as follows: <br> 1. YEAR: year.<br> 2. PVOL_n: the number of monitored territories.<br> 3. PVOL_mean: mean productivity (i.e. number of fledged chicks per pair and year.<br> 4. PVOL_var: sample variance.<br> <br> 12_MONITORED_POP.txt: A summary of the main demographic parameters of the 12 local populations monitored during the period 1990-2009.<br> <br> PVA_18_POP.txt: A summary of all demographic parameters used in the models to evaluate uncertainty in the model structure and the natal dispersal kernel (18 local populations: 12 monitored + 6 non-monitored)....