Influence of Immigration on Unemployment Rate: Evidence from the UK

This study uses the ARDL model and semi-macro data to conduct regression analysis on the relationship between immigrant share and unemployment rate and draws the following conclusions: First, overall, the increase of immigration will decrease the unemployment rate in the U.K. in the short-term; however, the long-term effect may be zero. The effect of immigration on the unemployment rate may vary subtly depending on the local economic development or population density. Specifically, in less economically developed or sparsely populated areas, an increase in the immigrant share may improve employment in the long term. Conversely, in regions with higher population density or RGDP, although immigration will improve employment in the short term, the long-term effects on employment are likely to be negative.
The uploaded zip file includes the raw data folder as well as the data files for analysis. After executing the latter CSV file named post_2021_7 into EViews 10, the overall regression analysis of immigrants on the unemployment rates can be obtained by following the steps of the panel ARDL approach. The results of the analysis of the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with lower RGDP, the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with higher RGDP, the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with low population density and the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with high population density can be obtained by using the files named post_2021_7_red_rgdp_1_2, post_2021_7_green_rgdp_1_2, post_2021_7_red_pop_1_2 and post_2021_7_green_pop_1_2, separately.