A discrete choice survey with Gulf of Alaska commercial salmon permit holders conducted in 2022

Resource users respond to economic, environmental, and political changes within complex and often highly uncertain decision-making processes. Analyzing and quantifying human decisions can improve our understanding of resource users and improve sustainability of social-ecological systems. In wild fishery systems, harvesters face high income volatility linked to natural variability, changing ocean environments, and world market dynamics. Past research has shown that owning additional permits reduces risk but at considerable cost leaving such adaptation strategies unattainable for many harvesters. We conducted a survey with Gulf of Alaska commercial salmon permit holders to investigate switching of target species within a given permit and to predict participation under environmental and economic changes. We show that harvesters diversify between multiple target species conditional on gear types, prices, potential harvest, and environmental conditions. Our approach is applicable to reducing human behavior-related uncertainty in resource management models and contributes to a better understanding of human choices, trade-offs, and preferences in Gulf of Alaska commercial salmon fisheries. For resource managers, the approach provides a toolkit for identifying tipping points related to participation and catch capacity relevant for managing salmon fisheries through escapement goals.