<p>Specification of event probabilities within each surveillance component. Each event must occur for a given infected individual to result in a reported detection of poliovirus. For all parameters except catchment of ES, a Beta distribution is fit to the given value and uncertainty interval from which random draws are used in the subsequent analysis. Uncertainty in the catchment population is explored through a sensitivity analysis of the assumed radius.</p>

Specification of event probabilities within each surveillance component. Each event must occur for a given infected individual to result in a reported detection of poliovirus. For all parameters except catchment of ES, a Beta distribution is fit to the given value and uncertainty interval from which random draws are used in the subsequent analysis. Uncertainty in the catchment population is explored through a sensitivity analysis of the assumed radius.