Debt Financed Palliatives and Poverty in Sub Saharan Africa: Nigerian Data

Data Description
Research Hypothesis
The central hypothesis is that debt financed palliative interventions, while intended to provide short term relief, exacerbate poverty persistence in Nigeria by constraining fiscal space and diverting resources from productive sectors. Endogeneity concerns, where fiscal space is simultaneously influenced by debt service and poverty outcomes, necessitate the use of a Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) framework to establish causal relationships.
Data Overview
The dataset spans 2010–2023 and integrates macroeconomic, fiscal, and social indicators from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank, and the Council on Foreign Relations’ Nigeria Security Tracker. Key variables include debt service (DEBTSERV), fiscal space (FISPACE), exchange rate (EXCHRATE), unemployment (UNEMPLOY), monetary policy rate (MOPORATE), insecurity related fatalities (INSECURITY), Gini index (GINDEX), maximum lending rate (MAXRATE), social expenditure (SOCEXP), poverty headcount (POVERTY), inflation (INFLATION), and National Poverty Index (NPI). Instruments used in the 2SLS estimation include oil price (OILPRICE), industry growth (INDGROWTH), GDP growth (GDPGROWTH), lagged poverty and inflation, NPI, and climate indicators.
Methodology
Stage 1 instruments fiscal space (FISPACE) using exogenous variables to generate predicted values. Stage 2 uses these predicted values to estimate their effect on poverty, controlling for macroeconomic and social indicators. This approach mitigates reverse causality and unobserved confounders, ensuring consistent and unbiased estimates.
Findings
The data show that rising debt service obligations significantly reduce fiscal space, limiting government capacity to invest in education, healthcare, and infrastructure. The 2SLS results confirm that constrained fiscal space is positively associated with poverty persistence, while insecurity and inequality further amplify adverse outcomes. Social expenditure has a mitigating effect but is insufficient when debt servicing dominates fiscal priorities. Overall, the dataset explains a large share of poverty variability, highlighting the structural link between debt dependence and entrenched poverty.
Interpretation and Use
Researchers can replicate the econometric analysis to test debt poverty dynamics in Nigeria or extend it to other Sub Saharan African countries with similar economic structures. Policymakers can use the dataset to evaluate trade offs between debt servicing and social investment, informing strategies aligned with Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The dataset is particularly valuable for comparative studies in development economics, fiscal policy, and governance.
Limitations
Security Tracker data ends July 2023; fiscal statistics may be revised by CBN or NBS; poverty measures rely on World Bank estimates, which may differ from national figures.