Inflation in industrial sector of the brazilian economy between 1996 and 2011: a disaggregated analysis

ABSTRACT This paper reports an empirical research on the dynamics of inflation of seventeen industrial sectors of the Brazilian economy between 1996 and 2011. From a theoretical discussion of the relationship between inflation and aggregate demand in traditional economic approaches (the New Consensus Model), Post-Keynesian and Distributive Conflict, we sought evidence of excess demand inflation and cost pressures in these sectors. The time series used were the Producer Price Index for Comprehensive Source (IPA-OG), the degree of Installed Capacity Utilization (both from FGV), the International Commodities Index (IFS/IMF), the interest rate and the nominal exchange rate (both from Brazilian Central Bank - BCB). The methodology was based on ADL Model (Autoregressive Distributed Lags). The results pointed to the absence of a strong and systematic relationship between inflation and aggregate demand, and to evidences of cost pressures, particularly international prices and the exchange of commodities as determinants of inflation dynamics of the sectors and period analyzed.