A pattern-oriented simulation for forecasting species spread through time and space: A case study on an ecosystem engineer on the move

Modelling the spread of introduced ecosystem engineers is a conservation priority due to their potential to cause irreversible ecosystem-level changes. While existing models predict potential distributions and spread capacities, new approaches that simulate the trajectory of a species’ spread over time are needed. We developed novel simulations that predict spatial and temporal spread, capturing both continuous diffusion-dispersal and occasional long-distance leaps. We focused on the introduced population of Superb Lyrebird (Menura novaehollandiae) in Tasmania, Australia. Initially introduced as an insurance population, lyrebirds have become novel bioturbators, spreading across key natural areas and becoming \"unwanted but challenging to eradicate\". Using multi-scale ecological data, our research (1) identified broad and fine-scale correlates of lyrebird occupation and (2) developed a spread simulation guided by a pattern-oriented framework. This occurrence-based modelling framework is u..., This dataset integrates fine- and broad-scale ecological data collected between 1970 and 2023. Fine-scale data was obtained from 210 camera trap sites in Tasmania, recording vegetation structure and lyrebird detections. Broad-scale data was compiled from citizen science records via the Atlas of Living Australia, combined with environmental predictors such as climatic variables, elevation, and land-use data.
Fine-scale habitat data was derived from camera trap detections, with vegetation classified into dense or sparse categories using a 3×3 grid overlay method. Broad-scale occurrence records were filtered for spatial and temporal accuracy, and pseudo-absence data was generated based on effort-controlled absence criteria.
Predictor variables for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were z-transformed, and categorical variables (e.g., vegetation, land-use types) were aggregated into broader classes. Spread simulations used a stochastic grid-cell model with parameters calibrated via a patter..., , # A pattern-oriented simulation for forecasting species spread through time and space: A case study on an ecosystem engineer on the move

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.xsj3tx9rg](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.xsj3tx9rg)

## Description of the data and file structure

This dataset supports the study on habitat suitability and spread modelling of the Superb Lyrebird (*Menura novaehollandiae*) in Tasmania. The study applies a sequential framework:

1. **Fine-scale habitat modelling** using camera-trap data to identify vegetation features influencing lyrebird activity.
2. **Broad-scale species distribution modelling (SDM)** using citizen science and camera-trap records combined with environmental predictors.
3. **Spread simulation** to predict lyrebird expansion over time using a stochastic grid-cell approach.

The dataset includes fine-scale vegetation structure, occurrence records, environmental predictors, SDM performance outputs, and simulation scripts.

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### Files and variables

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