Resilience-Lifecycle Evaluation for Emergency Management in Cross-Border Renewable Energy Projects

Cross-border renewable energy projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are often confronted with complex and overlapping risks. However, existing research lacks a dynamic, lifecycle-based quantitative framework for emergency management. This study introduces a "resilience-lifecycle" evaluation model that spans four key phases: prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. The framework integrates DEMATEL and entropy weighting to optimize indicator assignment, employs a normal cloud model to address fuzziness, and utilizes an enhanced Dempster-Shafer evidence theory for dynamic multi-year data fusion. When applied to the Nam Ou River Cascade Hydropower Project (2020-2024), the model revealed an improvement in emergency management performance from "good" to "excellent," with a confidence level of 0.772 by 2024. Key resilience drivers include cross-border power coordination, host government efficiency, and flood response timeliness, underscoring the importance of "institutional coupling" between project systems and host country governance. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the model's robustness under uncertainty. This study promotes a paradigm shift from reactive response to proactive resilience governance, offering a scientific decision-making framework for sustainable infrastructure development and global energy security.