Hysteresis between coral reef calcification and the seawater aragonite saturation state

Some predictions of how ocean acidification (OA) will affect coral reefs assume a linear functional relationship between the ambient seawater aragonite saturation state (Omega a) and net ecosystem calcification (NEC). We quantified NEC in a healthy coral reef lagoon in the Great Barrier Reef during different times of the day. Our observations revealed a diel hysteresis pattern in the NEC versus Omega a relationship, with peak NEC rates occurring before the Omega a peak and relatively steady nighttime NEC in spite of variable Omega a. Net ecosystem production had stronger correlations with NEC than light, temperature, nutrients, pH, and Omega a. The observed hysteresis may represent an overlooked challenge for predicting the effects of OA on coral reefs. If widespread, the hysteresis could prevent the use of a linear extrapolation to determine critical Omega a threshold levels required to shift coral reefs from a net calcifying to a net dissolving state.