Model assumptions and sources.

ETR 2010, Electronic TB Register 2010; NHLS 2010, National Health Laboratory Services database 2010; NDoH guidelines, South African National TB Guidelines [13]; QTBS 2010, Quarterly TB Statistics, National Department of Health 2010 [12].aTwo sputa.bThe proportion smear positive amongst all patients, and the proportion culture positive amongst smear negative patients, decreases in both scenarios over time as a function of the growth in suspects, allowing us to model a stable epidemic.cAdjusted using weights by HIV and history status from ETR.dSmear negative, diagnosed by antibiotic trial and/or chest x-ray.