Estimating survival for elusive juvenile pond‐breeding salamanders

Juvenile vital rates have important effects on population dynamics for many species, but this demographic is often difficult to locate and track. As such, we frequently lack reliable estimates of juvenile survival, which are necessary for accurately assessing population stability and potential management approaches to conserve biodiversity. We empirically estimated survival rates for elusive juveniles of 3 complex lifecycle species of salamanders (ringed salamander [Ambystoma annulatum], spotted slamander [A. maculatum], and small-mouthed slamander [A. texanum]) using 2 approaches. First, we conducted an 11-month mark-recapture study within semi-natural enclosures and used Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to estimate survival and recapture probabilities. Second, we inferred the expected annual juvenile survival rate given published vital rates for pre-metamorphic and adult ambystomatids assuming stable population growth. For all 3 species, juvenile survival probabilities were constan...