A meta-analysis combined with Biomod2 ensemble modeling reveals the climate-sensitive thermal adaptability of the invasive species Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley

Global warming is profoundly altering the population dynamics and distribution of agricultural pests. The cotton mealybug Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), a highly polyphagous invasive pest, poses a growing threat to cotton and ornamental plants worldwide. To quantify its thermal suitability and potential responses to climate change, we combined a global meta-analysis of temperature-dependent physiological traits with an ensemble species distribution model (Biomod2). Results showed that P. solenopsis develops optimally at 30–35 °C, with sharply reduced development time at higher temperatures. Among 13 bioclimatic variables, mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio08, 24.42%), isothermality (bio03, 20.90%), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio09, 18.47%) were the dominant predictors. Current suitable habitats are concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions of Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Under future SSP1–2.6 to SSP5–8.5 scenarios, moderate-suitability areas are projected to expand northward, particularly in East Asia and southern North America, while highly suitable zones may decline under extreme warming. These results indicate that temperature is the primary environmental driver shaping the global distribution of P. solenopsis, and that climate warming may promote its expansion into temperate zones. Our study provides a global-scale quantitative framework for assessing pest thermal ecology and invasion risk, offering valuable insights for early warning, regional monitoring, and adaptive management under future climate change.