Paninvasion severity assessment of a U.S. grape pest to disrupt the global wine market

Economic impacts from plant pests are often felt at the regional scale,
yet some impacts expand to the global scale through the alignment of a
pest’s invasion potentials. Such globally invasive species (i.e.,
paninvasives) are like the human pathogens that cause pandemics. Like
pandemics, assessing paninvasion risk for an emerging regional pest is key
for stakeholders to take early actions that avoid market disruption. Here,
we develop the paninvasion severity assessment framework and use it to
assess a rapidly spreading regional U.S. grape pest, the spotted
lanternfly planthopper (Lycorma delicatula; SLF), to spread and disrupt
the global wine market. We found that SLF invasion potentials are aligned
globally because important viticultural regions with suitable environments
for SLF establishment also heavily trade with invaded U.S. states. If the
U.S. acts as an invasive bridgehead, Italy, France, Spain, and other
important wine exporters are likely to experience the next SLF
introductions. Risk to the global wine market is high unless stakeholders
work to reduce SLF invasion potentials in the U.S. and globally.