Techno-Economic and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Assessment of a Utility-Scale Onshore Wind Project under Carbon Pricing and Feed-in Tariff Policies: Evidence from Indonesia

This study evaluates the techno-economic performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of a 70 MW utility-scale onshore wind power project in Tanah Laut, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, under carbon pricing and renewable electricity policy instruments. Although Indonesia has substantial onshore wind resources, large-scale deployment remains constrained by investment risk, tariff uncertainty, and weak carbon price signals. Using RETScreen Expert, this study assesses four policy scenarios: the current regulated electricity tariff with a carbon price of USD 2/tCO2, an IMF-aligned carbon shadow price of USD 50/tCO2, an enhanced feed-in tariff (FiT) under Presidential Regulation No. 112/2022, and an integrated policy scenario combining FiT incentives, carbon pricing, and extended project lifetime. The analysis covers net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), GHG abatement cost, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that carbon pricing alone cannot make the project financially viable under current tariff conditions. By contrast, the integrated policy scenario achieves an NPV of USD 57.79 million, equity IRR of 27.9%, LCOE of USD 0.075/kWh, and zero probability of negative NPV. The project consistently reduces about 10,133 tCO2 annually, confirming its mitigation value and relevance for emerging renewable power investment planning decisions today.