Approximate Bayesian computation - Posterior Probabilities and Error Rates

Posterior probabilities of phylogeographic scenarios in two-tier comparisons, type I (alpha, false positive) and type II (beta, false negative) error rates for "winning" scenarios (with highest posterior probabilities) in each step of each tier. The first tier has two steps (step 1: refugial scenarios; step 2: distributional shift scenarios). Tier 2 only has one step, but the winning scenarios from tier 1 are compared including or excluding a third scenario, vicariance. For the former (including vicariance), we computed type I and II error rates for all three scenarios, rather than just the winning scenario.