Assessing species richness trends: declines of bees and bumblebees in the Netherlands since 1945.

Estimating and predicting temporal trends in species richness is of general importance, but notably difficult because detection probabilities of species are imperfect and many datasets were collected in an opportunistic manner. We need to improve our capabilities to assess richness trends using datasets collected in unstandardized procedures with potential collection bias. Two methods are proposed and applied to estimate richness change, which both incorporate models for sampling effects and detection probability: (1) non-linear species accumulation curves with an error variance model and (2) Pradel capture-recapture models. The methods are used to assess nationwide temporal trends (1945-2018) in the species richness of wild bees in the Netherlands. Previously, a decelerating decline in wild bee species richness was inferred for part of this dataset. Among the species accumulation curves, those with non-constant changes in species richness are preferred. However, when analysing data sub...