The economic effects of full ICMS credit compensation on investment in Brazil: the Federal Role

Abstract This article analyzes the impact of the immediate and integral compensation of ICMS on the investment through a general equilibrium model. The results suggest positive impacts on the economy, but with a revenue loss of 1.25% for states in the short term. In order to avoid this loss, one solution is to increase transfers from the Union to states and municipalities. In this case, short-term losses are limited to 0.5%, with long-term revenue gains of 0.1% for all federated entities. Removing ICMS on investment may result in long term revenue gains even without any increase in taxation.