Do policy uncertainty and volatility index affect dynamic connectedness among house price, financial and commodity market indices? Evidence from TVP-VAR and quantile regression analysis

This study initially analyses the connectedness among five indexes representing five asset classes: equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and housing prices. Subsequently, it analyses the influence of policy uncertainty and equity market risk on the total connectedness of assets and their impact on the significance of the home price index. A time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR) model has been employed to explore the connectedness of the assets. Secondly, quantile regression is employed to gauge the impact of uncertainty and market risk in this study. The findings show that the S&P500 is the market’s most influential index. The home price index has proven sensitive to shocks from government bonds, commodities, and stock indexes across the period analyzed. Finally, findings have indicated that policy uncertainty positively influences the overall connectedness among the variables at all the quantiles. Moreover, at higher quantiles, an increase in policy uncertainty and equity-market risk decreases the net connectedness of the house price index. These findings hold significant implications for investors and policymakers in terms of diversification of portfolios and mitigating portfolio risk during periods of economic turbulence.
This study demonstrates the dynamic interrelationships among five major asset classes and indicates that policy uncertainty and equity market risk significantly influence asset connectivity. Employing TVP-VAR and Bayesian quantile regression, it reveals that the S&P 500 exerts dominant market influence, whereas the house price index exhibits significant sensitivity to shocks. The results highlight the significance of uncertainty for increasing interconnectedness, providing essential insights for investors and policymakers about risk management and portfolio diversification.