Ignition Probability of Travis and Bastrop County in Texas USA

This study explores the variation in ignition probability from different development patterns. This study sought to answer how development influences the spatial IP patterns. Development changes were mapped for eleven years (between 2001 and 2012) and the relationship between development and fire risk was assessed. The study area covered Bastrop and Travis County located in Texas. Bastrop county is home to the most destructive fire in Texas history, while the neighboring Travis County is one of the fastest growing areas in the state. Lateral development was categorized into five categories: infill, radial, isolated, clustered, and linear. Ignition probability maps show a fair sensitivity (0.77-0.78). Using Maximum Entropy, I predict the spatial distribution of ignition probabilities based on several physical and land use characteristics couples with historic ignition locations. Variation in ignition probability was assessed for each category of development using one-way ANOVA’s and post hoc analysis for each time period. Analyses found that outlying development patterns: isolated, clustered, linear, were at higher wildfire risk than infill and radial development. The results suggest that both spatial composition and location influence wildfire ignition. Probability results suggest that fire probabilities fall along a development gradient. Those areas nearest previous urban development have lower probabilities while outlying development patterns in the wildlands have higher probabilities.