Assessing restoration success by predicting time to recovery – but by which metric?

1. Restoration of degraded ecosystems may take decades or even centuries. Accordingly, information about the current direction and speed of recovery provided by methods for predicting time to recovery may give important feedback to restoration schemes. While predictions of time to recovery have so far been based mostly upon change in species richness and other univariate predictors, the novel ordination-regression based approach (ORBA) affords a multivariate approach based upon species compositional change.

2. We used species composition data from four alpine spoil heaps in western Norway, recorded at three time points, to predict time to recovery using ORBA. This approach uses distances between restored plots and reference plots along a successional gradient, represented by a vector in ordination space, to model linear or asymptotic relationships of compositional change as a function of time. Results from ORBA were compared with results from models of more generic univariate attribu...