Opportunities and Challenges for Canada’s Mariculture Under Climate Change: A Regional and Sectoral Outlook

Mariculture is an important component of the seafood industry in Canada, but climate change poses complex challenges and opportunities. Using the Global Mariculture Production Model (GOMAP), we assessed projected changes in production potential, farm-gate prices, and employment for key 13 species across the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Projections were modelled under two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and three production scenarios. Results show substantial regional disparities. The Atlantic region is expected to see modest gains under SSP1-2.6 but steep declines under SSP5-8.5 due to climate stress and habitat loss. In contrast, Pacific Canada; particularly central and northern areas show strong growth potential under SSP5-8.5, especially for climate-resilient finfish like Coho salmon and Steelhead trout. However, these gains depend on policy, infrastructure, and spatial planning that address conflicts with conservation, Indigenous uses, and other priorities. Farm-gate prices are projected to rise, potentially increasing producer revenue but threatening affordability. Employment outcomes diverge: Pacific Canada may benefit under high-emissions scenarios, while the Atlantic faces consistent job losses. Our findings highlight the need for adaptive governance and investment in resilient systems to ensure mariculture remains a sustainable, equitable, and climate-resilient food source for Canada.