Climate change shrinks environmental suitability for a viviparous Neotropical skink

Anthropogenic global warming and deforestation are significant drivers of
the global biodiversity crisis. Ectothermic and viviparous animals are
especially vulnerable since high environmental temperatures can impair
embryonic development, but we lack knowledge about these effects upon
Neotropical organisms. Here, we estimate how much of the current area with
suitable habitats overlaps with protected areas and model the combined
effects of climate change and deforestation on the geographic distribution
of the viviparous Neotropical lizard Notomabuya frenata (Scincidae). This
species ranges in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Bolivia. We use
environmental and physiological variables (locomotor performance and hours
of activity) to predict suitable present and future areas, considering
different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. The
most critical predictors of habitat suitability were isothermality (i.e.,
the ratio between mean diurnal temperature range and annual temperature
range), precipitation during winter, and hours of activity under lower
thermal extremes. Still, our models predict a contraction of suitable
habitats in all future scenarios and the displacement of these areas
towards eastern South America. In addition, protected areas are not enough
to ensure suitable habitats for this species. Our findings highlight the
vulnerability of tropical and viviparous ectotherms and suggest that even
widely distributed species, such as N. frenata, may have their
conservation compromised shortly due to the low representativeness of
their suitable habitats in protected areas combined with the synergistic
effects of climate change and deforestation. We stress the need for
decision‐makers to consider the impact of range shifts in creating
protected areas and managing endangered species.