Data for simulating near-term climate change impacts on Kenyan tree cover using LRange

Data associated with our paper “Near-term climate change impacts on Kenyan
tree cover” are archived here. In this work, using L-Range – an ecosystem
model – and the most recent downscaled climate projections we explored the
durability and wider impacts of ongoing afforestation efforts across
Kenya. These data represent input layers for the ecosystem model L-Range
which is a localized version of the global rangelands model GRange. LRange
retains GRange’s model architecture. However, within L-Range inference is
constrained to the spatial extent of Kenya by creating requisite input
spatial layers that most accurately represent land use, land cover, soil,
and vegetation conditions extant across the nation. Using this model we
explored how existing and planned tree cover across Kenya would respond
under multiple future climate scenarios. Our simulations indicate that,
under all scenarios, tree cover across Kenya will remain stable or show
increasing trends in the near term. This will be accompanied by increases
in overall woody vegetation, driven by shrub cover expansion and the
contraction of herb cover areas. These impacts will be particularly
pronounced in areas dominated by savannas and deciduous tree cover.
Alongside these changes in vegetative cover, simulations indicate declines
in net primary productivity and aboveground live biomass. The repository
also includes a link to an interactive web-based decision-support
application hosting results from this worl is also included.