Resilience model (MTSRF Project 2.5i.4)

This simulation model allows various scenarios to be run which test how different percentages of nutrient reductions (and the parallel improvement in inshore reef quality) might operate in conjunction with raised water temperatures (as a result of climate change).

The model has been used for the following simulations:
The beneficial impact of end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients reductions (10%, 30%, 50% and 70%) in raising the bleaching resistance (i.e. the UTBT, °C) of inshore reefs between Townsville and Cooktown.
The impact of 10%, 30%, 50% and 70% reductions in end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients for the Burdekin, Herbert, Tully, Johnstone, Russell, Barron, Daintree, Endeavour, Jeannie and Normanby river systems.
Two scenarios for the Tully River Basin - an 18% reduction in fertiliser N application, and a 35% reduction.

To develop a tool that enables greater characterization of risks posed to the linked GBR social-ecological system due to the effects of climate change.

The model interfaces source code written in C++ with ArcGIS webmaps.

Details pertaining to the rationale, development and application of the individual submodels and integrating framework can be found within the refereed journal articles.