ANP v8.1 Synthetic Study: P8 Detector Lead-Time and Ablation Results

Simulation code and outputs for the preliminary synthetic study reported in "Autonomous Network Propagators: A Seismic Early-Warning Framework for AI-Driven Threat Propagation" (v8.1, B. Greenway, ThinkWell Labs, June 2026). Implements the P8 statistic vector — exploration-entropy gradient (dH), weighted reach gain (dW), KL divergence from declared automation template (D) — with spike threshold and CUSUM detection across four scenarios (epidemic, surgical, slow-and-low, patch-storm) at 30 replicates each. Key results: median forecast lead of 4–5 windows before S-phase onset on epidemic and surgical scenarios; entropy-only detector achieves 0/30 surgical detections vs. 29/30 for the full vector; false-forecast rate 2–5 per 30 runs of 200 windows under quantile calibration.