Climate change and exotic pathogens shift carbon allocation in Mediterranean mixed forests

Forecasting the effects of global change drivers on ecosystems is one of the most pressing challenges for scientists worldwide. Particularly, climate change and exotic pathogens might have a large impact on plant community dynamics and ecosystem functioning through changes in carbon uptake and sinks. Nevertheless, we still have a poor understanding of the combined effects of these two drivers on plant communities. Here, we explored the impact of rainfall reduction and exotic pathogens on the carbon balance of Mediterranean tree species. For this, we performed a three-year field experiment taking advantage of rainfall exclusion infrastructures (30% exclusion) installed in the southernmost European oak forests invaded by the aggressive exotic pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi. We measured a set of 10 variables representative of tree carbon sources (photosynthetic rates) and sinks (primary production, reproduction, defence and reserves) in adult trees of three species in two forest types: closed forests of Quercus suber and Q. canariensis, and open woodlands of Q. suber and Olea europaea. We found a large variability in the sensitivity of the different carbon source and sinks to the effects of drought and pathogens, from variables highly sensitive to both factors (carbon fixation and reproduction, root chemistry) to variables only responsive to drought (litter production) or totally unresponsive (tree trunk, leaf chemistry). Although negative effects predominated, positive effects of rainfall exclusion were also detected in wet years, likely due to a reduction of pathogen abundance in a drier soil. Trade-offs between carbon sinks appeared in all tree species, but rainfall exclusion only modified trade-offs in Q. suber, the species most susceptible to P. cinnamomi.

Synthesis: We provide evidence on the complexity of the combined effects of abiotic (drought) and biotic (pathogens) global change drivers on carbon source and sinks of adult trees, including both negative direct effects and positive indirect effects. Our results showed that these effects varied among co-existing species, particularly for carbon sinks directly related to tree demography (reproduction). Therefore, long-term changes in the structure of Mediterranean mixed forests might be expected towards the dominance of species highly resistant to both drought and pathogens.