Spatiotemporal association and synergistic pathways between agricultural modernization and carbon emissions in Guangdong Province

ObjectiveThe green and low-carbon development of agriculture is an inevitable choice to break the dual constraints of resources and environment. Clarifying the interaction between agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emissions provides the scientific basis for achieving agricultural emission reduction and green transformation.MethodThis study constructed a multidimensional indicator system to comprehensively measure the agricultural modernization level and carbon emission intensity in Guangdong Province. The spatial pattern of low-carbon agricultural modernization level in Guangdong Province was determined, and bivariate local indicators of spatial association (Bivariate LISA) was employed to analyze their spatial association and differentiation, so as to provide a theoretical basis for formulating categorized low-carbon agricultural modernization pathways.ResultFrom 2017 to 2023, the overall agricultural modernization in Guangdong Province was generally in a transitional development stage. The modernization level was constantly improving, and the overall intensity of agricultural carbon emissions was declining. The overall enhancement of agricultural modernization had shifted its effect on carbon emissions from promotion to inhibition. Spatial differentiation between the two was significant at the county scale, with different evolution characteristics. The spatial shift of the agricultural carbon emission center lagged behind agricultural modernization. Low-value areas of low-carbon agricultural modernization were mainly concentrated around the core area of the Pearl River Delta, while high-value areas were concentrated in the Leizhou Peninsula and Chaoshan Plain, showing a strengthening spatial agglomeration trend over time. The agricultural modernization level and carbon emission intensity exhibited significant spatial association, but their relationship was not linear. Long-term analysis revealed that agricultural modernization first promoted and then inhibited the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions, and the agricultural development model acted as a key mediator. There were multiple carbon emission modes in the agricultural modernization of Guangdong Province. The existence and expansion of high modernization-low carbon emission (H-L) mode showed important progress in agricultural low-carbon transition, providing empirical experience for the coordination of agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emission reduction.ConclusionThe relationship between agricultural modernization and carbon emissions is not simply linear, but shows significant spatial heterogeneity and path dependence, with synergistic effect depending on the choice of development pathways. Low modernization-low carbon emission (L-L) areas should leverage green advantages to support modernization. In high modernization-high carbon emission (H-H) areas, it is necessary to promote using green low-carbon technologies to replace the original elements of high emission, and implement the combination strategy of emission reduction and sink increase. Low modernization-high carbon emission (L-H) areas should reconstruct their agricultural modernization development strategies across multiple dimensions such as agricultural input-output-sustainability. H-L areas should expand their development advantages to form a demonstration effect.