Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
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We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2020-04-01
