Risk of extinction of a unique skate population due to predation by a recovering marine mammal

Benefitting from reduced harvesting and an end to culling, many marine mammals are now recovering from past overexploitation. These recoveries represent important conservation successes but present a serious conservation problem when the recovering mammals are predators of species of conservation concern. Here we examine the role of predation by recovering grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the near-extinction of a unique skate population in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) in Atlantic Canada. Winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) in the sGSL are distinct from winter skate elsewhere and may represent an endemic species. Their adult abundance has declined by 98% since 1980 and these skates are now detectable in only a small fraction of their former range. Population modelling indicates that the ongoing collapse of this population is due to increases in the natural mortality of adults. Based on model projections this population would be extinct by mid-century if its current rate of p...