Data on the the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro, using a Bayesian VAR approach

This fileset contains two data files:These are: 22927448_new macro-model.wf1 in .wf1 file format, and the openly accessible versioin of the dataset, Time series and scenarios.xlsx in .xlsx file format.The dataset Time series and scenarios.xlsx contains observations on what happens to GDP, capital stock, human capital, and employment, in three economic scenarios – shocks – of how the pandemic disease might impact the economy of Montenegro in the dawn of entering the European Union. The authors forecast a sustainable GDP growth model from January 2006 until December 2017. Deterministic-static simulation solution model – the baseline – was employed, adding sensitivity scenarios – shocks – from January 2018 until Jun 2018, respectively, from -10% until -60%. The following time series data are included: GDP_GAP (The GDP GAP is defined as the difference between potential GDP and real GDP), EMP_SA (denotes seasonally adjusted employment time series), CAPITAL_STOCK_SA (denotes seasonally adjusted capital stock time series), LOGHUMCAP_SA (denotes the natural logarithm of human capital seasonally adjusted time series).In each spreadsheet, S1, S2 and S3 represent the three different scenarios.Scenario 1 represents the employment decrease, scenario 2 represents the capital decrease, and scenario 3 represents the human capital decrease.Study aims and methodology: A limited number of studies have examined the potential consequences of a pandemic such as COVID-19, on the economy of Montenegro. The objective of this paper is to fill this space by examining the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19, employing monthly data from January 2006 until 2017, and out-of-sample data from January 2018 until December 2018, predicting the movement of macro-model variables.In this study, the authors measured the COVID-19 impact for the first time in the Montenegrin economy using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) and forecasting sensitivity deterministic-static scenario model. They applied alternative forecasting scenarios to all the macroeconomic variables. For more details on the methodology, please read the related article.Software needed to access data: The WF1 file type is primarily associated with EViews Workfile. (Econometric software). A suitable software like EViews Workfile, is needed to open a WF1 file.