Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations: Modelling Food and Diet, 2020-2050

These datasets were collected as part of the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) project. The CAST Theme 1.3 project ran from 2020 - 2022 as a consortium of five universities – Cardiff, Manchester, Newcastle, York and East Anglia and the charity, Climate Outreach. The CAST project was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). The Manchester team was funded by grant ES/S012257/1. Further details on the CAST project and related publications can be found via Related Resources. The Centre’s hub is based at Cardiff University. Additional core partners include University of East Anglia, University of Manchester, University of York, University of Bath, and the charity Climate Outreach. The global food system is under increasing stress with a growing population, rising demand for meat protein and a changing climate. Reducing meat consumption and a shift towards plant-based diets has been proposed to reduce GHG emissions. However, a bridge between academic research data and communication with the general population is lacking. Here, we use outputs from an Integrated Assessment Model to show dietary change through popular dishes and consumption frequency. The scenario chosen delivered emission reductions commensurate with avoiding global warming above 1.5 deg C and replaced meat with plant protein. We applied the DDDI (diets, dishes, dish ingredients) communication framework to visualise these outputs in the form of plates. We also calculated the frequency of monthly consumption of key food groups and how the composition of popular dishes could change to be consistent with the scenario. The results reveal how modelled changes can be presented in an understandable way to show how the mix of different protein foods changes to meet greenhouse gas constraints by 2050.