Greenhouse Gas Emissions Due to Shift to Light Trucks in the United States, 2000-2047

There has been a dramatic market shift away from passenger cars and towards light trucks, particularly sport utility vehicles (SUVs), in the United States (U.S.). Beginning with model year (MY) 2012, light trucks now make up the majority of new light duty vehicles (LDVs). This study quantifies the total impact of the rise of light trucks from MY2000-2017.

Using data on vehicle production and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (in grams per mile) from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 2018 Automotive Trends Report, I estimated total emissions from passenger vehicles in the U.S. from 2000-2017. I then constructed alternate vehicle fleets based upon the shares of passenger cars, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks during MY1980 and MY1996. Furthermore, I broke the MY1980 and MY1996 scenarios into two: a Fixed scenario, in which the MY1980 and MY1996 fleet breakdowns remain constant from 2000-2017, and a Tech Change scenario, in which the total share of passenger cars and light trucks remained constant, but the relatives shares of Car SUVs, Truck SUVs, vans, and pickups was allowed to float to reflect real world dynamics. I also constructed a third alternate vehicle fleet, using data on the shares of these vehicle types in the European Union during that period; those data came from the International Council on Clean Transportation "European Vehicle Market Statistics" for 2018-2019. I then completed this same analysis through the end of these vehicles' projected functional lives, which will span from 2030-2047.

Based upon my analysis, these additional light trucks will produce anywhere from 867-3,519 million short tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) across their lifetimes, offsetting 19-75% of the projected emissions savings from the MY2011-2025 CAFE standards. Combined, the social cost of these additional emissions and the increased risk of traffic fatalities may reach $94.3-350.7 billion. The "GHG Emissions by Scenario" folder contains the individual emissions calculations for each of the five separate scenarios (MY1980 Fixed, MY1980 Tech Change, MY1996 Fixed, MY1996 Tech Change, and EU). The "SUV Scenarios Combined" spreadsheet collects all of these results and includes an analysis of the social cost of these additional GHG emissions. The "Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type Scenarios" spreadsheet incorporates the U.S. EPA data I utilized and includes various calculations and analyses of it that formed the basis for this research.

美国（U.S.）市场出现了从乘用车向轻型货车，尤其是运动型多功能车（SUVs）的显著转变。自2012型年（MY）起，轻型货车已成为新型轻型商用车辆（LDVs）中的主体。本研究量化了从2000型年到2017型年轻型货车崛起的总体影响。利用美国环境保护署（U.S. Environmental Protection Agency）2018年《汽车趋势报告》中关于车辆生产和温室气体（GHG）排放（每英里克朗）的数据，我估算出2000-2017年间美国乘用车的总排放量。在此基础上，我构建了基于1980型年和1996型年乘用车、SUVs、面包车和皮卡车型份额的替代车型车队。此外，我将1980型年和1996型年的情景分为两种：固定情景，即1980型年和1996型年的车队结构在2000-2017年间保持不变；以及技术变革情景，即乘用车和轻型货车的总份额保持不变，但Car SUVs、Truck SUVs、面包车和皮卡的相对份额允许浮动，以反映现实世界的动态。我还构建了第三种替代车型车队，使用该时期欧洲联盟（European Union）这些车型份额的数据；这些数据来自国际清洁交通理事会（International Council on Clean Transportation）“欧洲汽车市场统计”2018-2019年度报告。然后，我完成了对这些车辆预期使用寿命结束时的分析，这些使用寿命预计将从2030-2047年。根据我的分析，这些额外的轻型货车在其使用寿命期间将产生从867-3,519百万短吨二氧化碳当量（MTCO2e），从而抵消2011-2025型年CAFE标准预测排放节约的19-75%。这些额外排放的社会成本以及交通意外死亡率的风险可能达到943-3507亿美元。‘温室气体排放情景’文件夹包含了五个单独情景（MY1980固定、MY1980技术变革、MY1996固定、MY1996技术变革和EU）的排放计算。‘SUV情景综合’电子表格收集了所有这些结果，并包括对这些额外温室气体排放的社会成本分析。‘按车型类型情景的燃油经济性’电子表格整合了我所使用的美国环保署数据，并包含了基于这些数据的各种计算和分析，这些分析构成了本研究的依据。