Simulation of pattern of gene flow in Canjerana fragments in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest for evaluating genetic conservation strategies

ABSTRACT: Gene flow is important for the conservation of genetic resources to allow connectivity of geographically isolated populations and which genetic variability is reduced. Gene movement is a function of flow rate and model. Understanding how gene flow occurs can contribute to the conservation and selection of priority populations that could benefit from an eventual intervention. Simulation softwares allow making inferences about past events based on current datasets or predict future phenomena under real genetic scenarios. Adverse phenomena can be predicted and actions can be taken to avoid them. The aim of this study was to identify a model and the gene flow rates that could explain genetic structure of eight forest fragments of Cabralea canjerana in development in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. To do this, simulations were performed with the EASYPOP software using a microsatellite marker dataset obtained for the species by Melo and collaborators, in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We tested five models and nine migration rates and we selected the model that produced values closer to those previously obtained for them. Criteria used for selection were the observed and expected heterozygosity and the Wright’s F Statistics obtained in the simulations. The gene flow model selected was the isolation by distance model that used a rate of 0.1. We observed high levels of genetic differentiation among the fragments as result of their reproductive isolation. To allow homogenization of the allelic frequencies through gene flow, the solution would be to create ecological corridors with the aim of connecting distant fragments.